Are job interviews a reliable predictor of hiring success, or do referrals and prior direct work experience with a candidate work better?

Paul Graham · published Mar 2005

Hiring through personal friendship is far more informative than corporate interviewing, which is a crucial advantage startups have over big companies.

Being friends with someone for even a couple days tells you more than companies could learn in interviews.

source How to Start a Startup

Sri Batchu · published Jul 26, 2023

Honest backchannel references from people who have worked closely with a candidate are the most valuable hiring signal available to founders

Resumes and LinkedIn look reasonable and the interview process is always imperfect, so founders need someone with the relationships to get an honest read

49:07 20Growth: Biggest Growth Lessons from Instacart and Opendoor, Why 70% of Growth Experiments Should Fail and How to Fail Fast, How to Hire a Growth Team; Secrets and Tips & Why Operator Investors WIll be the Best Investors in 10 Years with Sri Batchu @ Ram

Chandra Narayanan · published Mar 13, 2024

Interview-based hiring is a poor predictor; the only signals that really work are having actually worked with the person or referrals from people you trust deeply

Interviews can judge a few things but there are too many unknowns — you simply don't know until they join; his own stated criteria like 'simplicity' are largely useless

Scope: interviews can still test a few specific things

62:37 20Growth: Top Five Lessons from Leading Analytics at Facebook and Data Science at Sequoia Capital, The Two Skills Required to do Analytics Well, The Three Types of Execs within Companies and When and How to Hire for Growth with Chandra Narayanan

Marc Lore · published Jul 12, 2021

Feeling the need to check references is itself the signal that a candidate is wrong; you should be certain from the interviews alone, interviewing a third time if necessary

References resolve a lingering 'tap on the shoulder' doubt with false confidence, and that original doubt usually plays out later

19:29 Certainty from interviews alone means references are unnecessary and signal doubt