Is NVIDIA's current valuation justified by its achievements, or is it overvalued?

David Cahn · Aug 5, 2024

NVIDIA's price-to-performance ratio will keep improving and the company will continue to surprise to the upside.

Silicon Valley's history is Moore's Law — chips get cheaper and better; the publicly announced B100 pricing per unit of performance is remarkable, and NVIDIA has a track record of shipping new products under Jensen's pressure.

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Andrew Feldman · Oct 6, 2025 · hedged

NVIDIA is the greatest company of the first quarter of the twenty-first century and a very large valuation is justified — $4.5 trillion may even be too low

Justified by what they have actually achieved

Scope: 'I don't know if $4 trillion is right'; 'maybe it's too low'

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Elias Torres · Mar 21, 2025

NVIDIA is the one public stock to buy and hold for the next ten years, while the incumbent giants will not last

The world is thirsty for compute, whereas he is scared of the giants' durability

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Harry Stebbings · Aug 4, 2025

If you believe in AI, you should buy NVIDIA

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Hussein Kanji · Jan 20, 2025 · hedged

The whole NVIDIA question is whether its 50% net margin is sustainable; if it compresses to even a very good 30%, the multiple changes

Its margin went from 10% to 50% on natural-monopoly dynamics, but Apple, Amazon and Meta are all building their own chipsets to remove NVIDIA dependence

70:59 Nvidias 50 percent margin sustainability is the key question for its valuation

Harry Stebbings · Nov 15, 2023 · hedged

The AI upside is already priced into Microsoft and NVIDIA, so they are not a buying opportunity

They are already so richly priced

47:40 Ai upside fully priced in so not a buying opportunity

Miles Dieffenbach · Aug 4, 2025 · hedged

A roughly 70% drawdown in NVIDIA is a plausible scenario if the AI bubble pops during a global downturn

Its largest GPU buyers (Google, Meta, Amazon) are advertising-driven cyclical businesses; a 20-30% revenue drop plus slow OpEx response could cut earnings ~40%, and a compression from ~38x forward earnings to a trough ~24x multiple compounds into a ~70% decline

73:05 70 percent drawdown plausible if bubble pops in a downturn

Jonathan Ross · Feb 17, 2025

NVIDIA's stock should not have fallen on the DeepSeek news; the drop was a misunderstanding and reflected the market's popularity-contest side, not fundamentals.

Jevons paradox applies, and investors who kept insisting the stock couldn't go higher were looking for an excuse to justify selling — that's the voting machine, not the weighing machine

12:36 Deepseek driven selloff was a market misunderstanding not a fundamentals issue

Jonathan Ross · Feb 17, 2025 · hedged

As a weighing machine NVIDIA should increase in value and its multiple is fairly fair, but so much popularity-contest premium is priced in that it may need revenue growth just to justify where it already trades

The popularity contest skews everything in the valuation

69:34 Popularity premium priced in requires revenue growth to justify