Is funding today's AI application startups logically consistent with believing AGI is imminent?
4 recorded positions from 3 people, first said Jul 31, 2024. The readings below are distinctions drawn on the record, not opposing camps.
Startups implicitly bet against agi since none would survive it
Ethan Mollick · Jul 31, 2024
There is an inconsistency in AI venture investing: every startup is effectively betting against AGI while their funders claim AGI is five years away, since none of those startups would survive an AGI world
If AGI genuinely arrived within five years, the companies being funded today would not survive it, so funding them contradicts believing your own AGI timeline
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Ethan Mollick · Jul 31, 2024
Essentially every startup being funded today is implicitly betting against AGI, because none of them would survive in an AGI world
If AGI means a machine smarter than humans at every task, the machine decides what to do and nobody needs your human-facing product; already a single Claude prompt will generate 30 product ideas, rate them, build a playable prototype and interview you as a user
Scope: no one actually knows what AGI looks like; he declines to paint a specific science-fictional future
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Harry Stebbings · Aug 5, 2024
It is inconsistent to believe in AGI and still invest in SaaS, because an SMB tax accounting product would not survive AGI
If AGI arrives, vertical SaaS products cease to exist, so belief in AGI and SaaS investing cannot be held together
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David Cahn · Aug 5, 2024
Believing in AGI while continuing to invest in SaaS is an inconsistent position
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