Does explosive demand during a macro tailwind (like COVID) indicate genuine product-market fit?

Adam Grenier · Mar 15, 2023

Clubhouse's rise and fall are both explained by product-market fit: it had killer fit for dinner-party-style conversation in that moment, then lost it as the product opened up and the market shifted

Most people want that kind of conversation once a month, not every day, so the frequency the product demanded didn't match real demand

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Harry Stebbings · Nov 22, 2023

Believing you have more conviction in one early-stage company over another is totally wrong, and traction shouldn't be bought as a signal because it isn't necessarily sustainable

He was in Clubhouse and Hopin — massive traction spikes that didn't hold; also, writing a variable check size signals oddly to the market

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Jamin Ball · Jan 10, 2024

Hopin and similar COVID-era winners had market fit rather than true product-market fit, and the core investing error was mis-projecting what the world would look like after COVID

Everyone needed virtual events at once, so adoption masked whether the product itself had actually been built right; when COVID receded, unviable customers churned off and alternatives became viable

Scope: specific to 2021/COVID-era businesses

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Jeff Seibert · Nov 22, 2023 · hedged

Traction in enterprise software is potentially more sustainable as a signal than consumer traction

43:59 Enterprise traction is more sustainable a signal than consumer traction spikes