Should Europe reduce reliance on the US and build independent defense, energy, and security capabilities?

Klaus Hommels · Nov 27, 2024

If the US withdraws its defense subsidy, Europe's only real answer is to build its own sovereign capability, which means investing now.

There is no substitute for own capacity; if it cannot be delivered fast enough Europe will be forced into worse options.

36:35 20VC: Why Price Sensitivity is BS | Why "Portfolios" are Merely a Construct to Make LPs Happy | Why the Best Investment Never Happen in "Fundraising Rounds" | What Europe Needs to do to Become a Superpower Again | Klaus Hommels, Lakestar

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025

The US can no longer be trusted as the protector of Europe, so Europe must rebuild its own defence, space, energy, security and intelligence sectors

The Ukraine war made European defence investing necessary rather than strange, and the February White House grilling of Zelensky showed the US cannot be relied on

39:29 20VC: VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised | Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs | Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds | Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025 · hedged

Europe's reliance on the United States for its security was already a mistake before recent events, and European countries must each carry their own weight

Human nature hasn't changed and the post-Cold War world turned out to be much like the old one, so depending on an outside guarantor was naive

Scope: still believes collective arrangements are better: Estonia within Europe, UK within Europe, Europe with the US; "maybe we were relying slightly too much"

41:13 20VC: VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised | Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs | Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds | Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus

Harry Stebbings · Apr 28, 2025

Europe has massively over-relied on the United States for defence

Roughly 75% of NATO contributions come from the US

41:57 20VC: VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised | Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs | Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds | Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025

Europe should not run critical information-gathering systems (patient monitoring, cameras, robots) supplied and controlled by the United States

The US could turn them off or access the data when it no longer feels good about Europe, and Europe already accepts it doesn't want Chinese equivalents

Scope: applies to systems with access to vast amounts of visual, audio or personal information

42:02 20VC: VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised | Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs | Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds | Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025

Europe needs sovereign control over who can access the data its systems gather and who holds the kill switch, which means European alternatives to US suppliers like Anduril

If you cannot guarantee a solution keeps working regardless of what people in the US decide, you cannot trust it

Scope: particularly for robots, cameras and anything capturing visual or audio information

43:25 20VC: VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised | Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs | Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds | Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus

Klaus Hommels · Nov 27, 2024

Europe's dependence on a single private actor for critical infrastructure like satellite internet is unacceptable and demands a consistent sovereignty strategy

An entire continent's internet availability depending on whether Elon Musk is having a good or bad day with Starlink is too poor a position for a continent to be in

Scope: the peace dividend era left Europe unprepared, himself included

27:10 20VC: Why Price Sensitivity is BS | Why "Portfolios" are Merely a Construct to Make LPs Happy | Why the Best Investment Never Happen in "Fundraising Rounds" | What Europe Needs to do to Become a Superpower Again | Klaus Hommels, Lakestar

Klaus Hommels · Nov 27, 2024

Europe would not get easy or priority access to Starlink capacity or SpaceX launch slots when European industry is competing with US firms like Tesla.

If self-driving cars become dependent on low-orbit satellites, the owner of the constellation and the launch capacity has no incentive to serve its competitors on equal terms.

30:01 20VC: Why Price Sensitivity is BS | Why "Portfolios" are Merely a Construct to Make LPs Happy | Why the Best Investment Never Happen in "Fundraising Rounds" | What Europe Needs to do to Become a Superpower Again | Klaus Hommels, Lakestar

Klaus Hommels · Nov 27, 2024

For roughly the next six years Europe will be unable to launch its own satellites at its own discretion, because the only options are restricted SpaceX slots or Ariane, which sold essentially all of its defense transport capacity to Amazon.

Ariane's capacity is contractually committed and SpaceX slots come with restrictions.

30:52 20VC: Why Price Sensitivity is BS | Why "Portfolios" are Merely a Construct to Make LPs Happy | Why the Best Investment Never Happen in "Fundraising Rounds" | What Europe Needs to do to Become a Superpower Again | Klaus Hommels, Lakestar

Klaus Hommels · Nov 27, 2024

The thing that worries him most is that Europe lacks a unanimous view on what matters to it, and the willingness to act on and fund that view.

31:33 Lack of unified european view and will is the core obstacle to sovereignty

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025 · hedged

The world is entering a period of decoupling, but the Western world will come back closer together after a rough patch

43:02 Decoupling is temporary west reunites after a rough patch

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025 · hedged

The capital for European sovereignty is now available; the binding constraint is absorption capacity and speed, so roughly a trillion this year and two the next is the realistic ramp

Germany allocated 1.5-2 trillion after the Zelensky White House meeting and similar discussions are happening across Europe, but Europe cannot deploy two trillion today

44:15 Capital is available absorption speed is the real constraint

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025

Europe should assume Russia will attempt in another country what it did in Ukraine within the next few years, and prepare accordingly

45:45 Russia will repeat aggression elsewhere so europe must prepare

Taavet Hinrikus · Apr 28, 2025 · hedged

Europe is not yet too late on defence: if the budgets are unlocked soon, a lot can still be achieved in a couple of years

Urgency is higher than it has ever been and politicians at the highest levels are now thinking about it the same way

46:17 Not too late if budgets unlock soon