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20VCApr 28, 2025

VCs are Spreadsheet Monkeys and are Commoditised

Why Fees and Carry Misalign GPs and LPs · Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds · Why We Need European Sovereignty More Than Ever with Taavet Hinrikus

With Taavet Hinrikus · Harry Stebbings

Full transcript · 58 min · 10,782 words · 2 speakers

Cold open

Do not be that asshole. There are plenty of stores out there of respectable VCs not picking up the phone when it’s the bad times. We are a commoditized product, Harry. VCs are a commodity. You can press them down. Fundamentally, the idea of collecting a two, two and a half percent management fee does not really make sense. It does not align us with the outcomes. If we can’t imagine a 100 x, we should not be entertaining this idea of this deal.

Taavet Hinrikus0:00

This is 20 VC

Harry Stebbings0:27

Intro

Harry Stebbings

with me, Harry Stebbings. Now I am a proud European. I grew up loving technology in London. With that in mind, there were few heroes for me to look up to. One of them is our guest today. He’s built one of the most defining companies in Europe over the last decade. The first ever direct listing in Europe, now a 10,000,000,000 company. I’m thrilled to welcome Taavet Hinrikus, today a partner at Plural, the $500,000,000 fund that backs the most ambitious founders in Europe to build what I call really hard shit.

Before Plural, Taavet founded Wise, and before that was the first employee at Skype. If that wasn’t enough, he’s also an angel in the likes of Bolt, who we had on the show before with Marcus and Synthesia. But before we dive in today,

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Conversation

Harry Stebbings4:08

Taavet, dude, I am so excited for this. I’ve wanted to make this one happen for years. So thank you so much for joining me. Finally. I’m so glad to be here. Well, dude, the pleasure is all mine. Now I wanna start before Plural. You’re a prolific angel. Can you just start on the investing career there, how it went, whether you liked it, and the transition to Plural?

Taavet Hinrikus

So I made my first angel investment probably about twenty years ago. And I think, you know, through the years of building Wise and still working at Skype, was like, I met other people who were building businesses. I was excited about what they were doing. I wanted to be part of the journey and wrote this more angel ticket. I went into overdrive once I stopped running Wise doing thirty, forty, 50 deals a year. That was fun, you know, but I think it was it started feeling to me a little bit Wall Street esque high speed deployment.

I think it’s been it was a great portfolio strategy. I think the portfolio has done really well, but it felt it wasn’t it wasn’t very kind of mission aligned. I thought there is something more that can be done. And that’s kind of was the beginning of thinking, hey, we should start Plural. We should really think about getting founders who have scar tissue from building companies to become investors. What was

Harry Stebbings5:21

the single best investment from that period?

Taavet Hinrikus

So one of the things I missed out on investing in Bolt’s seed round, but then a couple of years later, was really impressed with Marc Andreessen, and I spent a bunch of time and I spent a lot of my limited liquidity buying up secondaries in in Bolt in, like, 2017.

Harry Stebbings

I just wanna start then with a core question, which is you said there about it felt a little bit like Wall Street. That kind of hit when you said it because it made me think of Doug Leone. He said on the show to me that Venture has turned from a boutique cottage community into a commoditized high volume industry. Do you agree with that transition from boutique community to a high volume commoditized industry?

Taavet Hinrikus6:07

I think a lot of that rings a bell, but I think we need to unpack that a little bit more. I think, you know, it’s very different if you’re talking about deploying big checks in mid or late stage. It’s very different if you’re doing high speed investing in early stage, kind of what I did as an angel. It’s very different to what we do at Plural, which is backing the most ambitious founders. And sometimes there’s no one else who wants to back them. I think we need to unpack this into different parts of venture ecosystem and different parts, I think, are going through different journeys.

Harry Stebbings

You said before I saw this and I was like, this is just too good not to start with it. You said VCs are spreadsheet monkeys who have no idea how to run a business. Can you unpack that for me, Taavet?

Taavet Hinrikus

What I meant by this is that if you are looking at a mid stage SaaS company, consumer company, where all you need to do is stack up the cohort curves, take away the CAC, multiply by LTV, pay a very high price to win the deal, that is not very exciting to me. And that’s what I mean by spreadsheet monkeys. But if you’re talking about early stage, when you’re really looking looking at the founder deep inside, trying to figure out why is he doing it? What is his unfair advantage to build a generational business?

I think that’s very different. And some things that I’ve said many times is that if we look at the European landscape, the vast majority of the European GPs have not spent a single day working in a real company. They’ve worked in consulting firms, but they haven’t worked in a real operating company. And I think the scar tissue you have from working in an operating company or even more the scar tissue you have from building, being the founder, being the CEO is very different.

Harry Stebbings7:59

There’s two elements I wanna unpack there. The first you said about kind of the movement away from the spreadsheet investing. I had Nabil from Spark on the show who has made some great investments recently in your granolas, but also your Anthropics of the world. And he said that we’re actually leaving that era, that that predictable SaaS growth era is over. You see companies like Lovable, Bolt, and the core, Midjourney, you name it, where revenue trajectories are unparalleled. And that SaaS predictability era is over. Do you agree that the era of, like, spreadsheet investing and predictable SaaS growth is over, and we’re now in this unbelievably unpredictable time?

Taavet Hinrikus8:35

There is a lot more unpredictability, but I think there is still, you know, companies that are on a growth trajectory. I think they will look somewhat similar and, you know, more spreadsheet like. They need capital and people need to give some capital. There’s nothing wrong with that. But that’s, you know, maybe even more similar to what public market investing used to look like a long time ago. But I think if you’re talking about trying to spot the next trillion dollar company, I think that’s a lot harder, maybe even harder now than it was back in the days because competition is bigger in some sense.

There are more people trying.

Harry Stebbings9:11

You mentioned the majority, I think you said before, it’s like eight to 12% or whatever that actually had operating experience in real companies in venture in Europe. How does the mindset differ when comparing an investor who doesn’t have any operating experience to someone who does have a lot of operating experience when it comes to actually investing and picking the companies to work with? How does that mindset differ, you think?

Taavet Hinrikus

It’s about ability to assess the founders and think about what could this look like once we get to product market fit. When you have product market fit, when you have metrics to look at, I think everything becomes a lot easier. The challenge is really before that. A big part of it is also we’re five partners at Plural. We’ve all built companies before. We’ve all raised money. We’ve either raised money or tried to raise money from pretty much everybody who was around ten years ago. The best of the best and the worst of the worst.

Every time we had the most insightful conversations with the people who had built their own companies. In the seed round, we got Max Levchin when we were raising money for TransferWise, as it was called before. Then we raised money from Ben Horowitz. And same same for my partners. We had the most insightful conversations with people who had been on operating journeys. And that’s why we were always looking for people who were a couple years ahead of us. And we feel also now, like even now when we speak to founders, they really appreciate the fact that we’ve been in their shoes.

Does it make us a better investor? Frankly, I don’t know. Time will tell. It makes us better partners for the people we invest in.

Harry Stebbings10:50

If you go through the different elements of sourcing, selecting, securing, which is winning, and servicing, which is helping. Do you think, if we take it one by one, the operating experience makes you better at sourcing, finding companies? Like, do more founders go to you inbound because of the experience and the operating successes that you’ve had or not?

Taavet Hinrikus11:14

Frankly, I think venture is a brand game. So if you are a new fund, a brand is a brand of GPs.

Harry Stebbings

I would say that Plural built a brand as being you do deep, hard shit. Most other people are like, well, don’t understand that. Would you say that’s a fair representation of the brand that you want to build?

Taavet Hinrikus

We are looking to back some most ambitious entrepreneurs, whatever they’re building. So we’re looking at Proxima Fusion. That’s maybe what you would call Departure. Then we look on the other side, we have Teton, which is using CCTV cameras to monitor patients. It’s not that complicated maybe. It’s a full spectrum. But I think it’s a character of the entrepreneur which is maybe the most important. Half of the founders we back are repeat entrepreneurs. We look at Thorsten, who built a gaming company, then he went into building a defense company, and he started Helsink in 2020 or 2021.

You need to have something which makes you tick differently to go building a defense company four or five years ago, before this became a hot topic.

Harry Stebbings12:21

How do you feel about the value of serial entrepreneurship? Inherently, find that I feel so much more comfortable backing a serial entrepreneur. There is so much learnt through the scar tissue of the mistakes you’ve made before. But then others say about the benefits of naivety of being a first time founder.

Taavet Hinrikus

We love repeat founders. When we look at the people we’ve backed and the ones we haven’t backed, what stands out to us is that the repeat founders, they typically go for a much bigger goal. Torsten did a gaming company, then he went into defense. We can talk about Danny Alecke. The first company was ecommerce, and then he took on a massive challenge of building Spotify. So we love the fact that these people, they go for a massively bigger goal next time. And, again, I don’t know if they have a bigger likelihood of success, but even if the likelihood of success is the same, the outcome is so much bigger.

They’ve learned a fair few things on the journey. I don’t think I would be that excited to back a founder who built fintech company one and then goes on to build fintech company two.

Harry Stebbings13:19

You know, I had Dalian on the show from Founders Fund, and he said if you are a repeat founder building in, like, enterprise SaaS, you are doing a massive injustice. In this time when we have income inequality like never before, climate challenges like never before, energy problems like never before, conflict and defense problems like never before, you really thought the second time you’d do payroll again?

Taavet Hinrikus

For me personally, it’s pretty hard to get excited about the good old SaaS company.

Harry Stebbings

I I still get very excited. So that’s the joy of this game, which is there’s many different ways do it. We are complimentary, Harry. I I I agree totally. Do you think rich investors make better investors? I often think this with like a sequoia of the world. They are not scared about downside protection. They are upside focused. They are not scared of losing their jobs. They are not scared of not making money. It is solely upside. Do you think rich investors make better investors?

Taavet Hinrikus14:13

What I would ask about is, are they investing other people’s money or their own money as well? I think there is one thing if you’re a rich investor and you play with only other people’s money. There’s a different thing if you’re a rich investor and you’re investing your own money. It’s a question of alignment, and hopefully we’ll talk more about this. But like we’ve thought deeply about alignment in venture and how to make sure that we are better aligned with both our LPs and our founders.

And I think that to me is a core thing of like, look at what a person does with their own money. And think I that’s kind of the most important.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think when we look at the current state of venture, it is aligned sufficiently?

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t think it is in general. Fundamentally, the idea of collecting two, two and a half percent management fee does not really make sense. It does not align us with outcomes. At Plural, we charge about half the management fee and we think we are much better aligned. And also what it enabled us to do is make a few more investments per fund. So in Fund I, we probably made two more investments because of this. Fund II, we think we’ll make four more investments as a result.

That’s four more shots on goal. That is pretty damn important. And still, we have a fantastic team. We have five GPs. Everyone is being paid well, but not ridiculously.

Harry Stebbings15:29

What would you say to the GPs who say, Hey, I need these fees. I need them for paying benchmark salaries against other salaries for other firms, which are the same. I need a platform team. I need a head of talent. I need you name it.

Taavet Hinrikus

Earn your right to do it. You know, when hiring people for a startup, you want to hire the people who are dying to work to build this company. You don’t want to hire the people who are coming here for the biggest salary. Yes. You wanna make sure they are compensated ridiculously well if things go well. I am very proud of the fact that when we built Wise, everybody had stock options, including every customer support agent. Because the customer support agents who joined in the beginning, they all made a million dollars when Wise went public.

I’m super proud of this. Similarly in venture, the team and GPs, once we have this magic DPI, they should make lots of money. But I don’t think people in venture should make a lot of money just because they are deploying capital.

Harry Stebbings16:26

Do you blame the VCs or do you blame the model? Because, like, fundamentally, like, it’s just a game of human incentives. And when we know, you said that DPI. Liquidity is so backdated now. I mean, it is so elongated in a way that it hasn’t been fifteen years ago or so. It’s really fifteen to seventeen years before most funds are seeing DPI meaningfully. Do you blame the GPs?

Taavet Hinrikus

It’s a game. Don’t blame the player. Blame the game. It goes both ways. As the industry evolves, maybe things will change. And, you know, we’re hopefully doing our part to to make this a better game for everyone.

Harry Stebbings17:00

Do you worry about the elongated window to DPI and liquidity, especially for some of the projects that you do? These are such hard projects. These are multi decade journeys. Isn’t it even longer for some of these projects?

Taavet Hinrikus

I do do worry. We need to come up with better solutions for some of the long liquidity problems. Some of these companies may need billions. But I think at the same time, if the companies are well capitalized, milestones, then you have liquidity. You know, the best example of all is maybe SpaceX today. It’s a private company has had zero liquidity issues. There is a secondary market always open. So journey in the beginning was very hard, but being able to attract the capital to get to a place where you hit your milestone and make progress.

So especially in in the what you call crazy companies that we back, it is definitely harder. But I think, you know, we need to make sure these companies are hitting milestones, creating value, even if revenues take longer. And I think then there will be opportunities.

Harry Stebbings18:01

Do you think the ten and two traditional venture model in terms of timeline needs to be updated, especially for a generation of companies that you invest in?

Taavet Hinrikus

I mean, ten years is short. I mean, if I look at, you know, maybe looking back now, Wise now looks like a simple fintech company. Everyone is doing fintech companies. You know, it took us we started working on it with Kristo in 2010. We launched beginning of twenty eleven. We went public in 2021. That was a ten year journey. But also, to be honest, the last three years were probably pretty liquid even we were private. Let’s call it seven years. And maybe for deep tech companies, it’s ten to twelve.

You know, if you hit the bad patch in the markets, it becomes fifteen. I think we need to recognize this. But I think also maybe at some point people just need to be more disciplined in returning some capital early. You know, there are some investors out there who are very vocal, you know. I think Fred Wilson has spoken a lot about taking some money off the table. We

Harry Stebbings

mentioned like fees and that structure as like a misalignment in the industry. Are there any other misalignments you think that are very prominent that we don’t speak enough about?

Taavet Hinrikus19:04

Skin in the game, fees. I mean, think there are some other kind of When you

Harry Stebbings

say skin in the game, you mean like the GP commits?

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t think venture should be a rich people’s area only. Going back to what we spoke about before, look at for someone to invest their own money. We are the biggest investor in the fund ourselves. And additionally, every deal we do, the lead partner of the deal writes a personal check. So we are- Can I be blunt? How much of the fund are you? Collectively, we are the biggest investor in the fund. I don’t think we’re not going to start talking about numbers, but you know, you’ve been in you’re in the business, you know how much the biggest LP in a fund could be as a percent.

So you can make the most

Harry Stebbings

that, the lead partner will also write another check.

Taavet Hinrikus

Yeah. That is unusual. We don’t like the idea of playing with playing with the house money is something that we’re not so keen on. It’s a personal check. The size of it depends depends on the individual’s position. So for some people it’s smaller, for some it’s bigger. But we want it to be something which is meaningful. So you think about like I’m investing my own money in addition to the fund where I’m already an investor. And I think there may be a ritual part as well of wiring from your own account the same time as we wire from the fund account.

Maybe the other thing to mention, like there are other weird things in venture, like where does the idea come from that you should pay your investors legal fees? Well, we pay our own legal fees. Vast majority of venture deals as in the term sheets, that you pay your investors’ legal fees. What is this about? It comes from the money you give the company, the company pays their legal fees.

Harry Stebbings20:40

Yeah.

Taavet Hinrikus

Why does it make sense? I think it’s just the way

Harry Stebbings

it’s been done.

Taavet Hinrikus

And so we should continue.

Harry Stebbings

And so so you will pay the legal fees for the whole round?

Taavet Hinrikus

No. We pay our own legal fees. Okay. And usually, the company pays the investor’s legal fees. Just, you know, we can I’ll show you where it is in the term sheet after the after the discussion.

Harry Stebbings

And so you pay your own legal fees, and the company pays their own legal fees. Fine. Where do you pay your legal fees from? The management company of the fund? Yes. What do you think are the areas of founder investor conflict that people don’t often talk about?

Taavet Hinrikus21:13

Timeline misalignment. Investors wanting their money back before the founder, which is a kind of a hard one. Like, you know, in a way, if the founder is in it for the next two decades, it’s a question of liquidity.

Harry Stebbings

Has being an investor changed your mind in any major ways about operating? Now you see the other side of the table. Are you like, Ah, I actually get it now on this or on that?

Taavet Hinrikus

I think maybe the biggest thing which strikes me is fund composition part. We really don’t think we have much control over fund composition. What do you mean, sir, when you say fund composition? Like, do you like how many SaaS companies, how many carbon companies. You don’t want to have the same risk everywhere. You know, companies outside are like, fuck, we have too many deep tech companies. We need a SaaS company. Like we’re kind of Okay, mostly with the fact that we follow the most ambitious entrepreneurs, whatever they’re building.

But I can start sympathizing with the people who are saying, hey, like, you know, you have this great carbon capture company. I love you, but we have three already in the fund. We can’t add a fourth one because it starts skewing the fund composition. You start learning new ones like that, which, you know, on a deal by deal basis isn’t relevant. But, you know, if the whole fund is subject to the carbon markets, for example, somebody should think about it then.

Harry Stebbings22:36

Given the outlandish bets that you take, Blunty, in terms of outcomes and how ambitious they are, how do you think about portfolio construction in terms of how many you want on a per fund?

Taavet Hinrikus

On a per fund basis, I think Fund I, probably had a model of 25 to 30. We ended up with 31. So we do pay attention to having diversity in the portfolio. Yeah. Do you do reserves? We do reserves as well. What’s the ratio there? Reserve ratio, Fund I, we had limited reserves, was less than a third. Fund two, we drew the line roughly in the middle. I think probably we end up with slightly less than half for reserves. And the reserves is still something that we’re iterating and learning about the best way of doing it.

I haven’t found anyone who says they’ve nailed it.

Harry Stebbings23:28

No. And I really also don’t like the uniform reserves. There’s some people that say, If you get a good round, we’ll always write a reserve check. I don’t think that’s right. I think you should actually be kind of all in or not.

Taavet Hinrikus

Fundamentally, I agree with the idea that just doing a pro rata is a cop out.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Taavet Hinrikus

You either want to do nothing or triple down. However, I think the real world is slightly more complex. A round happens a year later. The company has done well. There is this weird signaling thing. Some days I think signaling risk is real, some days I think it’s not real. You want to make sure you have some kind of a more uniform way of doing it through the fund. And we’re working on that.

Harry Stebbings24:08

We’re gonna get to decision making. I do just have to ask you, think the thing where you get in trouble with the reserves is like the communications, where people think that it’s coming and then it doesn’t come and you surprise them last minute. Now I work with some of the biggest and best founders who I bring in to co invest with us. And the thing that uniformly shocks me in communications is how much harder former founders are or founders are with founders than VCs are. VCs kind of tiptoe around founders.

We don’t wanna get a bad NPS. And Taavet, you’re doing great. You’re doing great. But, like, I’m not gonna do the reserve check. And former founders or founders are just like, dude, you’re not hitting bar. Like, this is not impressive. And they’re much more direct and less empathetic in some ways. Do you think that?

Taavet Hinrikus

I think this is really hard. We try to be honest, but we’re also czar for the founders and we kind of promise we’re not going to give up before you. But it doesn’t mean we’re going to write bad money after good money. We’ve told our founders we’re here to have GDP level impact. If your company is not doing it, I’m sorry. We should not continue funding it. You may keep on working on it and we’ll do our best to help you, but it doesn’t guarantee the next checks.

Harry Stebbings25:22

How do you think about when you say that we’re here to have GDP level impact, we’re gonna get to Europe later, but just on the decision making, I hope that you don’t have like traditional investment committees. That is like the hailed structure of decision making in venture. How do you think about investment decision making on a per company basis in the firm?

Taavet Hinrikus

It is super simple and we have it’s very, actually very formal like. There’s a couple of things. Every investor can only do a limited number of deals per year. It looks at two to three deals per year is the right pacing. If you come saying I’m doing deal number six, we’re gonna be like, hey, Taavet, what’s going on? Limited number of shots on goal. Skin in the game, so you’re willing to commit your personal money. Third one, you write a memo about the deal. The memo starts with, why is this company important to me?

Every deal we do, we’re testing like, would you be willing to be a co founder of the company? All the 49 deals we’ve invested in so far, we feel about all of them that the partner who did the deal felt like, bloody hell, this is so important, so exciting. I would love to be a co founder of this company. The memo starts with why is this important to you? Let’s talk about the founder. Why is it important for the founder? How can it be 100x from here?

If we can’t see that, we should not be entertaining it. 100x? If we can’t imagine a 100 x, we should not be entertaining this idea of this deal. There are many great investments which are five x guaranteed. There are many great investors who should do this. It’s not plural. Once we have that memo, we have an investment committee. And given that we don’t vote on deals, the committee discussions are very honest, very brutal. Pause there. When’s the memo sent? We typically start talking about the company way before the memo.

Then the lead investor says, I’m writing a memo. We’re gonna have an investment committee. We have a brutal discussion at the investment committee about the company. And then the ball goes back to the lead investor.

Harry Stebbings27:19

On that discussion quality, I think it’s most often damaged because not all of the investors or partners’ knowledge is at the same level as the lead partner. And so you’ve got some people who know nothing about the company and some who know a lot. How do you make sure that the partnership’s knowledge on the company is at a sufficient enough level to have that quality discussion?

Taavet Hinrikus

Most likely, we’ve spoken about the company a few times before over the past weeks, during our pipeline meeting, etcetera. There are a lot of companies where more than one partner meets with a team. Does

Harry Stebbings

every partner need to meet the founder?

Taavet Hinrikus

No, absolutely not. And I think there is probably no company where all the partners met the founders before the deal. It’s typically one or few partners that meets a company. But we give a lot of trust to the individual GPs. The bar for being a GP is super high. So we give them a lot of trust, and we kind of felt that it doesn’t make sense to hire someone brilliant and tell them, you have to come on Mondays to ask permission to do a deal. Going back, we have the IC.

And after the IC, the lead partner goes back and thinks about the feedback. We have many cases where after hearing feedback, the lead partner is like, hey, guys, you know, Ian, you raise great points. Karina, what you said about your experience in the market is very true, and I’m not gonna do the deal. Many cases where this happens.

Harry Stebbings28:44

What’s the percentage time? I know it’s unfair, but like, is it like seventythirty, fiftyfifty, eightytwenty?

Taavet Hinrikus

It’s probably more like seventythirty, 70% gets done, 30 doesn’t get done. But, you know, we’re not really we’re not quite like I’m not sure measuring is is the right thing and start setting maybe wrong incentives. And by the way, sometimes also there is a time factor. We look at a deal, doesn’t make sense. The lead investor comes back like, Hey, I’m not doing it now. Six months goes by and like, Hey, guys, I’m going to have a new IC. The company has, you know, done what they promised or something has changed and I want to lean in now.

So let’s have a discussion again.

Harry Stebbings29:21

How do you feel about compressed timelines for deals when founders are going, Hey, I’m sorry, I’m running a process and I need answers by Friday. How do you as a partnership feel by being put under that urgency?

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t think it’s happened to us.

Harry Stebbings

We do see different types of deals.

Taavet Hinrikus

I mean, I completely respect the fact that we need to communicate to the founders how long something is going to take. And if we tell them that, hey, you know, we’re going to have an ICE on Tuesday and we’ll tell you on Wednesday, it makes sense. We can get things done very quickly. We probably got some things done within a number of days. And if something is super competitive, we need to move. We need to decide soon. We believe that we tell the founder what our process looks like.

Try to make it compatible. 2020, 2021, there was a lot of deals done, under the gun, basically. I did some myself personally, big losses. Even may have done some together. But you know, it’s They were

Harry Stebbings30:22

great. Those were the winners.

Taavet Hinrikus

Definitely. So I don’t see the crazy companies moving so quickly. That’s the momentum spreadsheet investing which starts moving way quicker.

Harry Stebbings

Tell me, do you have some form of scoring voting mechanism in the partnership to give that very objective feedback to the lead partner to take home?

Taavet Hinrikus

Not really. We talk about it. We share our feedback very, very kind of directly. You think

Harry Stebbings

you should? Also, we are the same as you. People say to me, it’s very helpful to have a historical record so you can see how the partnership picks and thinks over time. And you can look back and go, Taavet, historically.

Taavet Hinrikus31:04

We keep we keep notes directionally because I think it does help calibrate. I think in an ideal world, we wanna come back to it a year later and say, Hey, let’s recall that IC and what do we learn from it?

Harry Stebbings

Is there anything that you think you should change about your decision making process? Absolutely not. We’re brilliant. On the reserve side, how does the reserve’s decision making look?

Taavet Hinrikus

So reserve, like, follow on checks Mhmm. We flips we flip it around. On the reserve decisions, like, follow on checks as we call it. Lead investor writes a memo, comes back with a proposal, but this needs a majority vote. It’s the idea of marking up your own homework. Kind of the idea of the fund is we write whatever 25, thirty first checks. Everyone does four, five, six, seven, like doesn’t matter who does more or less, really. But when we talk about the reserve, that’s a finite allocation, a finite asset we need to divide up.

And you cannot do that unless you take collective feedback, collective input. We think these ones are done best collectively. We’re trying to balance, you know, how could we keep a bunch of reserves for the best companies? But you don’t know the best companies. Next round, you might not know it’s a round after next either. How do we do our share to help the companies forward in the next fundraise, which oftentimes means doing the pro rata, which I think is a cop out, But doing that and then, you know, balancing that with can we keep larger reserves for deploying checks in companies where we are actually, you know, at that time, maybe not confident of 100x because we’ve seen 10x already.

But if that if at that point you see the momentum and you feel, you know, maybe it’s 50x left, 30x left, you wanna deploy deploy more capital.

Harry Stebbings32:51

On the deal structure itself, we spoke about misalignments earlier. Lick prefs, liquidation preferences, are often now more and more under scrutiny. Maybe it’s I’m seeing in The US, but people are now often doing deals with no Lick Pref. How do you feel about Lick Prefs as a former founder and now VC?

Taavet Hinrikus33:10

I don’t think it makes that much sense. We are here for unlimited upside, 1x downside. The difference is purely marginal. We spoke about this when we were starting to play around this idea for Plural and thinking like, what are the structural misalignments in the industry we wanna fix? Think this is one of the next things we should work on. We haven’t ultimately haven’t felt it important enough. I also, to be honest, as a founder, feels shit. But also as a founder, it doesn’t matter. As a founder, you’re also in here for the long term upside.

Let me rewind. What we need to think about in the industry is how much capital gets deployed for a size of an outcome. Founders too often think fundraising and large fundraisers is ultimate measure of success, you know, which I think is BS. Something that hasn’t been spoken widely, even so Wise supposedly raised a shit ton of money. We probably raised a billion or more. Wise only raised 160,000,000 primary capital, and we only burned through about a 100,000,000 of primary capital. 100,000,000 primary capital to build in excess of 10,000,000,000 of value.

If you look at companies outside where you’ve raised 2,500,000,000 to create 10,000,000,000 of value. And then if you deploy if you if your company raises 1,000,000,000 at 5,000,000,000 with a possibility of getting to $8.09, 10, maybe the leak pref is different. But early stage leak pref, I don’t know. It doesn’t really make sense. But

Harry Stebbings34:35

Another element of timesheets is also boards and involvements on boards. Do you need a board seat with every deal?

Taavet Hinrikus

We do not love boards. I think it’s a fair starting point. The things that I don’t like about boards, they oftentimes become way too big, way too quickly. Your c round investor takes a board seat. Your a round investor takes a board seat. Your b round investor takes a your c and d. So you end up with five VCs on the board and two founders. I don’t think these boardrooms are any good. The other thing you

Harry Stebbings35:07

not more. Why are they not good?

Taavet Hinrikus

Because you have five people with a relatively similar mindset, similar view of the world. You know, they will be looking at maybe the guy with the biggest fund or the guy who wants to be the smartest guy in the room. They will dominate too much of the discussion. The right boards are slightly more balanced. I’m very much in favor of the idea that founders who are building companies, at some point it might be good for them to be on one board of another person building a business.

I think it’s good for both.

Harry Stebbings

We’re seeing an increased dilution sensitivity from founders, where especially at the early stage, don’t want to dilute more than say a 10% on the first round or the first proper seed round. Are you seeing this increased sensitivity around dilution from founders?

Taavet Hinrikus

We are commoditized product, Harry. VCs are a commodity. You can press them down. Someone told me early on, the only person to to fight for your ownership is yourself. No VC will ever fight for the founder’s ownership. You need to fight for it. So there’s a lot of truth in it. You know, the founders say need to fight for their ownership. Absolutely. The other side of it is and still is. If you’re a good fundraiser, you’re building something which is deemed to be hot. You’re building an AI SaaS company.

It’s easy to put a party around together, dilute 10%, and nobody gives a shit about the business. So I think you need to think about, do you have people involved who will help you through the good times and the bad times? In the good times, you don’t care about their advice. You don’t need their help, but you want someone to pick up their phone when it’s the bad times. There are plenty of stores out there of respectable VCs not picking up their phone when it’s the bad times.

Do not be that asshole. So but I think it also goes back to founders of, like, actually creating a round where people have enough skin in the game to feel interested, to feel the company is important.

Harry Stebbings36:59

There’s so many things I just wanted to pick up on. The best founders do not need the help of the VC. Keith Rabois said it on the show to the point of like, we’re there for founders. We’re here to help you found a value add. How do you reflect on the best founders don’t need you?

Taavet Hinrikus37:14

Fundamentally, I agree with this, but I think, you know, we have the ability to be very deeply involved if you need us and get out of the way rest of the time.

Harry Stebbings

On the early stage being art, not a science. What worries me is like the multistage funds have so much money now. You’re 8,000,000,000, 10,000,000,000, Andreessen raising 20,000,000,000. Pre seed and seed is literally just a massively high velocity option game. Five on 50, fine. Doesn’t matter. It’s 5,000,000. We just wanna have a chance to write 25 at the a and a 100 at the b, and all that matters is it could be the next data breaks. And, actually, seed is being destroyed by this high volume game.

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t think this game will last. I think the best founders will realize that getting a check on good terms from a multistage firm is by no means a guarantee of raising money from them in the future. I think they will I think the game will change. The industry will change. The game will change over time. More capital coming in. The question is, are we gonna have more founder? Like, how do you keep it in balance? If you have more capitals, then founders are getting better terms.

If you have more founders and it slips.

Harry Stebbings38:20

Do you think we have an excess supply of capital for the founder base that we have today?

Taavet Hinrikus

Yes, in certain sectors which are deemed hot. You know, 2021, if you were an x y’s employee, everybody would write a check to you without even meeting you. Does that make any sense? No. Same happened to Google employees maybe five years before. I do think that you need to separate kind of the early pre product market investing from a later stage. But but I guess I think all at the same time, it’s safe to believe that the returns will be coming down over time as asset class matures, becomes bigger.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think they will come down as the asset class matures and becomes bigger or they will go up as outcome sizes become bigger and trillion dollar companies become more and more commonplace? I mean, dollar companies ten years ago were like, now there’s several.

Taavet Hinrikus39:10

So best investors will continue generating best returns, but I think median is probably gonna come down over time.

Harry Stebbings

If Plural does not hit the heights that you would like it to, what will be the reason?

Taavet Hinrikus

Europe did not have enough ambitious entrepreneurs. It’s them, not us.

Harry Stebbings

Speaking about putting in the effort, I do wanna move to Europe. You said that now is the time of all times for European sovereignty. On the why now, why is it so important now more than ever that Europe stands on its own two feet, do you think?

Taavet Hinrikus

Even zooming out when we were starting to think about Plural in 2021, that we raised our first one in 2022. So thinking of creating Plural, we had two things which were really important, European sovereignty and GDP level impact. That was true four years ago, and it’s even more true now. Two things which have happened in between, one is the Ukraine war, which, you know, before that, investing in defense felt strange. After the Ukraine war, it feels like we need to do this in Europe.

And I think the other thing second thing which has changed is, I think, really, what happened in the White House in February, where Zelensky was taken for a grilling and the ways that US cannot be trusted anymore to be the protector of Europe. This kind of results in a world where we need to rebuild a lot of things on our own. We need to build our defense sector. We need to build our space sector. We need an independent energy sector. We need security, intelligence, a lot of sectors where I think we’re gonna be living in a tripolar world.

So there’s gonna be an American version. Let’s call it Andoril. There is a European version, Helsink, a Chinese version, defense, space, energy, security, intelligence, everything, all of the critical services. And these critical services, they make up a vast portion of GDP.

Harry Stebbings41:08

Do you think our relationship with The US has fundamentally changed?

Taavet Hinrikus

I think it has.

Harry Stebbings

Does that worry you?

Taavet Hinrikus

We probably were living in a naive world before this. We saw human nature has changed, and, you know, we’re now post Cold War in in a different world. And maybe history could have worked out differently, but I think now the world is pretty similar and the idea that we overly rely on The US probably was already wrong back then. I think we all need to punch our weight. I believe we are better collectively. Estonia is better part of Europe. UK is better being part of Europe.

Europe is better together with The US. But I think we all need to collectively put in the effort. And maybe maybe we were relying slightly too much on The US before. Today- And when you

Harry Stebbings

look at NATO contributions and 75% coming from The US, we massively overrelied on The US.

Taavet Hinrikus42:02

That’s very kind of clear. But I think also what we’re seeing now with The US saying, you know, we’ll sell you a 10% worse fighter jet. Who ever going to buy US defense equipment? I mentioned Teton before doing monitoring patients. Do we want a US patient monitoring solution in our hospitals? Do we want we have a company which is making So why

Harry Stebbings

do we not want a US patient monitoring system? We have US data storage systems. We have US system. What

Taavet Hinrikus

if they turn this off when they don’t feel good about Europe anymore? Do we want US robots roaming around our streets collecting intelligence information? I think it’s pretty clear we don’t want Chinese ones.

Harry Stebbings

But at what stage do you draw the line then? You are living in a completely compartmentalized, deglobalized world where you could say that for everything? You you you have to. I think I’m hopeful that You know, Germany are buying a billion dollars of energy a day in some circumstances from other countries because they are so woefully inadequately supplied by energy.

Taavet Hinrikus43:02

We are going into a world of decoupling decoupling for for a a while. While. I’m kind of hopeful that Western world will come closer together after going through a rough patch. These are complex topics.

Harry Stebbings

Why do we need national sovereignty or like, continent sovereignty around your Helsings for Europe and Andrilds for The US? Why is that important? Andrilds sell in Europe?

Taavet Hinrikus

What if The US says, we’re gonna disable Andrild in Europe? You need independence. If we can’t guarantee that the Android solution works regardless of what people do in The US, we cannot trust it. And I think if you’re thinking about anything else which has access to vast amount of information, If we talk about anything that gets visual audio information, robots, cameras, we probably want to control who has access to the information we gather and who has access to a kill switch.

Harry Stebbings

Robots, intense information, defense, space, energy. Do we have anywhere near the supply of capital currently today to fund this incredible depth of sovereignty supply needed.

Taavet Hinrikus44:15

Do you remember how much capital Germany allocated to this the last couple of weeks of February? I think it was between 1.5 and 2,000,000,000,000 that Germany allocated just after the Zelensky White House meetings. These discussions are happening everywhere in Europe today. And so reality is we probably cannot use 2,000,000,000,000 today. We need a trillion this year, two next year over time. So I’m feeling Is that the right approach? Germany saying here’s a trillion. What does that mean? We need to work together in Europe, but we need to work together in ways which are slightly more slightly faster than the way we’ve done it before.

Like, if you think about some of the defense collaborations that have happened in Europe, they’re very painful. Italy says, we will take part in this project, but this widget has to be produced in Italy. And that makes things very slow. Like, if you look at how the how war has happened in Ukraine, you need to be building it trading constantly. I think we need to be a little bit more modern about the way collaboration happens, but we do need to collaborate around Europe. And I think there’s the capital everyone is realizing that defense contributions, you know, we were not at 2% in Europe before.

Estonia was ahead, but and and Poland was ahead. But, you know, we need to get to three, four, 5% everywhere, and same in other critical industries.

Harry Stebbings45:35

Estonia, Finland, Baltic countries have been ahead for a while. To what extent is it a very real concern for you about Putin wanting to expand beyond where he is now?

Taavet Hinrikus

I think it’s a very serious, very real concern. We should be living under the assumption that whatever happened in Ukraine now, Russia will try in another country over the next years, and we need to be ready for this.

Harry Stebbings46:00

Are we too far behind already when you look at China and when you look at the supply of talent that they have, the depth of talent that they have, the control that the CCP has, the funding that they have, and America and what America have shown in the last few years, have we already faded into irrelevance?

Taavet Hinrikus

If we go back to the question around defense and timeline of a couple years, I think if these budgets are unlocked soon, we can actually still get a lot done. The urgency is higher now than it’s ever been. Politician at the highest levels are thinking about it in the same ways today. So I’m hopeful that they will come up with the right answers, but it’s by far not guaranteed.

Harry Stebbings

Do you I don’t think the political structures allow them to come up with the right answers in a way that’s best for us in the long term. They are focused on a four year reelection cycle, and a lot of the projects that we’re talking about are ten, fifteen years out. And, actually, the capital requirements and prioritization strategies needed don’t favor reelection. That’s what worries me.

Taavet Hinrikus47:02

I think it’s it’s a correct thing to worry about, but I think also we need to be more entrepreneurial and find ways to build things quicker. And I think it’s doable.

Harry Stebbings

If we go through, like, problems that we need to overcome, what do you think are the single biggest barriers we need to overcome in the race against China and The US?

Taavet Hinrikus

A lot of this comes down to sufficient early stage capital for deep tech companies. It’s a crazy investment that we like to do in Plural. You know, if we’re looking at, for example, Proxima Fusion building a fusion power plant, the most advanced fusion company in Europe. So new German government has said, say, want to first not one, but two fusion power plants to be built in Germany. So we’re seeing there’s a political will to act now as well.

Harry Stebbings

More deep tech cash earlier in Europe. We’re not ambitious enough. We often get told, hey, we don’t work hard enough. The other one is, oh, you’re happy with a $50,000,000 sale or an ARR?

Taavet Hinrikus48:00

Harry, we don’t brag about it as Americans do. That’s the difference between European and Americans. We’re too humble. And I think, you know, we need to learn to become better marketeers. Absolutely. Maybe we need to hire American marketeers.

Harry Stebbings

Another that I I never have an answer for, and it’s like the regulatory hurdles that come from a fragmented Europe being a barrier to stopping us. To what extent do you think that is a very valid problem?

Taavet Hinrikus

No entrepreneur ever has not started a company because of regulation. The best entrepreneurs, they go through walls made out of titanium to make it happen. It’s an excuse. But on the other hand, we need even more to make Europe a more unified market. Labor, capital. Why do we need to have a stock exchange in Amsterdam? Great companies listed, sir. London, Estonia. I would I would love her to be As an Estonian stock exchange? Unfortunately, yes. I would love her to be a single global stock exchange.

Maybe we could build it on the single blockchain.

Harry Stebbings49:02

I asked Julia Hogarth, the CEO of the London Stock Exchange, whether we should have a European stock exchange. You know, when you look at the stock exchanges across Europe, they’re all subpar and they’re all subscale. I was met with a frosty reaction. Do you regret going public in London?

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t regret going public in London. I think Wise is an example of a company that is well known amongst investor universe that can go public anywhere. Adyen went public in Amsterdam. Whoever knew they have a stock exchange, they’ve done very well. Wise has done very well in The UK. Do you think it’s been a passive up and down, but that’s something which I think would have happened similarly in The US.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think you’d have a pricing premium if you’re in The US?

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t believe Wise would have a pricing premium in The US. We spent a lot of time agonizing this over the years before the IPO. So I think it for Wise, it has worked out well. However, structurally, we have a lot of issues here. We don’t have enough retail participation in The UK. We don’t have enough institutional participation from the pension funds. Do think UK stock market is subprime in that sense. If you’re a retail product, you want your consumers to buy you, so makes sense to go public in The US.

But I also think in some sense, maybe some of this is a bit of a wrong thing to spend so much energy on. Wise would have gone public in The US? Result would be the same. We would not be paying more tax in The US. We would still be headquartered here. So sometimes it feels to me people love to talk about this, but I’m not sure how big is actual difference for certain companies. Do you think Nick

Harry Stebbings50:39

should go public in London? He’s built the business in London. The team primarily is London HQ’d. Do you think you have a duty to go public in London?

Taavet Hinrikus

I don’t know the I don’t know what duty Nick feels. I’m So not I can’t answer on this. Here’s what I would tell Nick. If he wants to build a big business in The US, then he should go public in The US.

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask you a very wise, thoughtful, premeditated person in a nice way? When you go public also after lockups, have liquidity. How did making money change your mindset, approach to life, approach to relationships? How did it change who you are?

Taavet Hinrikus51:16

Frankly, I think it has not changed. Like, I I have generated liquidity through the years from Wise. I mean, not until we were valued at billions. I didn’t sell a single single share of second secondary. But after that, they’ve done it in a, I would say, systematic way. I was also lucky to make money from being the first employee at Skype from stock options. So in that sense, I’ve been financially independent since two thousand two three.

Harry Stebbings

Does it change your mindset, though?

Taavet Hinrikus

I’m all interested in the upside, and I’m interested in what are the good things I can do with with the returns. I don’t need to go to work for the monthly paycheck. I think that is an incredibly powerful moment for everyone.

Harry Stebbings52:01

If you were to sit in a room with the leaders of Europe and say, US, China, we need to compete. This is what we should do from here to change. Are there any policy changes changes that you would recommend to make us as competitive as possible?

Taavet Hinrikus

More capital for deep tech investment. Look at encouraging entrepreneurship, reducing the regulatory burden. And I think the way we do government purchasing decisions, whether it’s in defense or other areas, the government should be the biggest customer for European startups.

Harry Stebbings

Listen. I wanna move into a quick fire because otherwise, I could talk to you all day. So I say a short statement. You give me your immediate thoughts. Sound okay? Yeah. Let’s try. What do you believe that most around you disbelieve?

Taavet Hinrikus

Estonia is a fantastic country. We have the biggest number of unicorns per capita, and nobody knows us. Why do you think that is?

Harry Stebbings

What is in the waters of Estonia?

Taavet Hinrikus

We had great education during Soviet times. We had an early start, thanks to Skype. So ecosystem acceleration from an early success story is humongous.

Harry Stebbings53:06

Which company today in Europe do you think will be the biggest accelerator in the way that you mentioned there was Skype?

Taavet Hinrikus

There seems to be a lot of companies coming from Revolut today, which is pretty pretty cool to see. I don’t know how many of them are doing exciting things compared to do trying to do fintech widgets, but maybe today I’d say Revolut. I mean, Wise has a fair share of startups. Monzo has been great. Spotify, I don’t know off top of my head.

Harry Stebbings

Spotify has been pretty good. What buy in the public markets would you make for a ten year period? What’s your like buy and hold? I

Taavet Hinrikus

have never bought a public stock. That’s really hard. For ten years. Yeah. I mean, actually, maybe I would go very classic Berkshire Hathaway for ten years. That is gonna compound in a much more predictable way if it’s the only thing I’m allowed to hold.

Harry Stebbings

I love that. You haven’t bought a public stock?

Taavet Hinrikus

Lots of private stocks.

Harry Stebbings

What have you changed your mind on in the last twelve months?

Taavet Hinrikus54:02

I’ve become a whole lot more optimistic on Europe. I think, frankly, everything that has happened in relation to US, have become so much more bullish on Europe. We will rebuild the critical industries.

Harry Stebbings

When you look at your best investment, we mentioned Bolt earlier. Is there another one that you think will be the standout?

Taavet Hinrikus

Maybe Synthesia. I made a pretty big angel investment early on when it was two crazy guys. AI was I don’t think abbreviation AI was used. They were doing video generation using smart engineers. They’ve done an amazing job and still early in the journey.

Harry Stebbings

Tell me, if everything goes to plan with Plural, what happens? What does the world look like then?

Taavet Hinrikus

Trillion dollar European companies. In ten

Harry Stebbings

years?

Taavet Hinrikus

We will see.

Harry Stebbings

Tal, listen. Thank you so much for this. I love it when conversations bluntly, don’t go to plan. It’s always the joy of what I do. I I you know I’ve wanted to do this one for a long time, so I really appreciate you taking the time. This has been fantastic.

Taavet Hinrikus55:00

Me too. Thank you, Harry.

Harry Stebbings

I mean, the breadth of that show is incredible, from global conflict to the future of European tech to the misalignments in venture capital, Taavet was incredible. If you wanna watch that episode, you can find it on YouTube by searching for 20 VC. But before we leave you today,

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